June 12th Update
A different type of newsletter today – more of that lower down.
Firstly though, both the NH horses are now residing in their new home for the next year in Lambourn. Toby and Clare said that the move went well and both Surrey Lord and Hillsyde Hope seem very relaxed and settled in their airy barn. Both are now back in light training as they build up towards their outings on the track in October (if the rain comes!).
The flat horses are all in various stages of recovery or getting ready for their debuts. There’s not a great deal to report, Surrey Moon is still on course for an outing early August, Surrey Bolt is doing more on the gallops, with a video sent to the owners this week of Bolt working with two others on the Al Bahathri gallop. Surrey King is (he’s being assessed tomorrow) on his last week of box rest while Surrey Etoile is being pushed a little harder in France. Etoile is a little sore in his joint between the pedal and pastern bone which is common after a long period of inactivity. We had him x-rayed and there is mild arthrosis there and so the surgeon has recommended infiltration, an anti-inflammatory treatment, which can be successful, more optimistically considering that Etoile isn’t lame and treating the issue early is a positive.
There’s a lot of terms associated with injuries that I find reverting to Ai very helpful which I did when looking up infiltration treatment. So, while I was there I also asked ChatGPT on how it saw the breeding of our 4 flat horses for a bit of fun. Take the below conversation with a pinch of salt, however I found it interesting and amazed at how much Ai will influence us in years to come. Feel free to have your own fun with whatever Ai you use!
Pedigrees: Crystal Ball or Educated Guess?
Surrey Bolt – ★★★★★
For me, this is the standout page. New Bay has become one of Europe's elite stallions and his stock seem to improve every year. But what really elevates Bolt's pedigree is the dam's side. Being out of a Frankel mare from the family of four-time Group 1 winner Speedy Boarding gives the page real depth and quality. It's a pedigree that suggests class rather than just speed. Frankel has already developed quite a reputation as a broodmare sire as well. His daughters seem to pass on athleticism, scope, and plenty of mental toughness. If Bolt has inherited even a fair share of those attributes, we'll have plenty to look forward to. I'd hope he develops into a high-class miler or ten-furlong horse, with enough versatility to compete in Pattern company if everything falls into place. Commercially, this is the page I'd probably have been most determined to buy. Rather than being an out-and-out stayer, Bolt also appears a stronger, more forward type than some of our other youngsters, which perhaps explains why his training has progressed relatively smoothly.
Surrey King – ★★★★☆
I love this mating. Palace Pier brings obvious brilliance, but I'm just as interested in the influence of Nathaniel through the dam. Nathaniel's stock generally improves with age and stay well, and his daughters are already starting to leave their mark as broodmares. To me, this is the sort of pedigree that could produce a horse capable of winning over a mile at three before perhaps finding his optimum over 12 furlongs later. Unlike New Bay or Sea The Moon, Palace Pier is only just getting started as a stallion, so there's more uncertainty, but as a racehorse he was exceptional: If he transmits his own ability, he has the potential to become a top-class sire. That's the unknown—you don't yet have the body of evidence that exists for New Bay or Sea The Moon. Highgarden wasn't just well bred—she proved it on the track by winning a Group 3 over 12 furlongs and earning an official rating of 104. She is a granddaughter of Galileo. Compare the dams - that gives Surrey King the strongest proven female side of the four although the page doesn't quite have the proven black-type depth of Bolt's female family, but genetically it feels an exciting blend of speed and stamina. Pedigree isn't destiny. For example, Surrey King has now had two runs without making an impact, so his racecourse performance hasn't yet matched the promise of his page. That's not unusual for a horse from Hughie Morrison's yard, where many improve with time and distance, but ultimately the track decides how much of the pedigree's potential is realised.
Surrey Moon – ★★★★☆
Surrey Moon's pedigree is wonderfully uncomplicated. Study Of Man and Sea The Moon are singing from the same hymn sheet, both pointing towards middle-distance ability, patience, and steady improvement. Study Of Man won the French Derby (Prix du Jockey Club) and is a son of the legendary Deep Impact, one of the greatest stallions of the modern era. Although still relatively young as a stallion, he's made a very encouraging start. The dam, Alla Luna raced only once, finishing second on debut before her career ended. On its own that's not especially informative, but the female family is where things become interesting. Her dam, Alla Speranza, was a high-class mare rated 107 and has already produced offspring rated up to 115. Even more encouraging, Alla Luna's half-sister Alla Stella has shown black-type ability. (also, Alla Speranza’s dam produced Almeric, 3rd to Rebel Romance this week). He's unlikely to have been bred to be an early star, but I'd be disappointed if he wasn't a considerably better horse at three and four and If he fulfils what his pedigree promises, he'd hopefully become the sort of horse who is still progressing when many of his contemporaries have already reached their ceiling. Owners naturally want to see instant results, but Surrey Moon always looked like the type who might thank us for our patience in another twelve months' time rather than another twelve weeks.
Surrey Etoile – ★★★☆☆
Perhaps the hardest horse to judge. His pedigree has plenty of stamina and plenty of scope for improvement, but it feels a little less commercial than the other three. That isn't a criticism. Some outstanding racehorses have completely unfashionable pages.
The sire, Sea The Moon, won the German Derby by 11 lengths and has become one of Europe's most respected middle-distance stallions. The dam, The Lady was unraced, which is obviously not ideal because there's no racecourse evidence of ability. However, the important part is the female family. Her dam Tanamia was Listed placed, meaning the family has already shown black-type ability. Even more encouraging is that another Sea The Moon offspring from this family, Tansania, has also achieved Listed form, that suggests the mating with Sea The Moon has already worked once. The interesting wrinkle is the presence of a little sprinting class further back in the family, which may just provide enough tactical speed to stop him becoming one-paced. Of course, his recovery from injury remains the immediate priority, but purely on pedigree he still has every chance of developing into the type of horse who improves significantly with age. Given everything he's had to overcome already, perhaps that's exactly the sort of pedigree you'd want behind him.
• Surrey King – arguably the standout page, with a Group-winning dam and a very exciting young sire.
• Surrey Bolt – perhaps the safest pedigree, thanks to New Bay's established record and the outstanding female family descending from Speedy Boarding.
• Surrey Moon – the "sleeper" for me. He has a pedigree that could look a lot better in hindsight if he matures as expected.
• Surrey Etoile – the one I'd expect to appreciate time and distance the most, assuming he returns well from his injury.
Of course, pedigree is only one piece of the jigsaw. If bloodlines guaranteed winners, we'd all simply buy the best page in the catalogue and retire happy. Racing has a habit of making fools of pedigree experts. We've all seen beautifully bred horses who never quite make it, while an unfashionable family suddenly throws up a Group performer. But equally, generations of selective breeding aren't an accident. When the same families consistently produce horses that stay, improve with racing, and compete at the highest level, it's worth paying attention.
One thing that strikes me about all four of our horses is that none of them scream "early, precocious two-year-old". Instead, they're bred from families that suggest improvement, development, and patience. As owners, that's quite reassuring. If these pedigrees prove true to type, we may find that the horses we're watching today are only giving us a glimpse of what they'll eventually become. And in racing, that's perhaps the most exciting thought of all.
Have a good week ahead
Possible races and events.
August
Wednesday 5th – Surrey Moon - Yarmouth